A new assessment of economic integration in East Asia: Application of an industry-specific G-PPP model

It is well known that intra-industry trade and cross-border production networks have promoted economic growth and regional integration in East Asia. However, regional supply and production chains may have been formed differently across industries, reflecting different degrees and a different scope of regional economic linkages at an industry level. This paper makes a threefold contribution. First, to assess industry-level differences, this study adopts the generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) model using industry-specific producer prices. Second, the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model is employed to allow for possible nonlinearity arising from the dynamic nature of regional economic growth and development. Third, the Granger causality test is also conducted to assess whether regional economies have autonomously integrated. The empirical results reveal that economic integration has progressed more autonomously in the electrical industry, as well as in the transportation equipment industry, as China and the ASEAN countries have become the final destination markets for finished products in these two industries.     

Investigating the Impact of Income on Savings Using a Chinese Household Level Dataset

This article uses the China Household Financial Survey (CHFS) to examine the savings behavior of Chinese Households. Using a standard cross-sectional empirical approach to modeling permanent and transitory income, we show that one way of explaining the relative high savings rate in China is by recognizing that in fast growing economies, individuals may have higher transitory income from which they save a large proportion. The estimation also contains a range of household specific variables which can be used to understand the impact of socio-economic characteristics such as urban vs rural dwelling, age, and the educational level.     

农户行为层面生态环境问题研究进展与述评

采用文献回顾法和归纳法,从研究内容、研究视角、研究区域、研究方法和手段、数据获取等方面对农户层面生态环境问题的相关研究进行梳理与分析,最后总结了现有研究存在的问题,并探讨了未来农户层面生态环境问题研究发展的方向。主要结论如下:(1)研究内容涉及农户行为引起的农业环境问题类型、农户行为的生态环境效应、农户环境保护行为与生态建设行为、农业环境保护政策创新等方面;(2)研究视角主要包括以农业生产行为决策者农户为中心内生视角和以农户需求与以农户行为为出发点的外部视角,研究区域主要集中在经济发达地区;(3)在研究方法方面,早期主要是采用一般描述、定性分析和"事前"估计法,近年来"事后"计量模型的研究逐步增多,趋于多样化和综合性;(4)数据获取主要是农户问卷调查和参与式农村评估方法;(5)今后研究应加强农户行为对环境影响的定量评价与跟踪研究、农户环境保护响应决策机制、基于农户行为的环境政策设计等方面的研究,在数据获取方面,应将地理空间信息与问卷调查、社会经济状况结合起来,并进行农户行为与生态环境变化的长期跟踪。     

退耕还林背景下农户收入的社会网络效应分析 ——以四川南江县白滩村为例

研究目的:探讨退耕农户在生产力安排和收入结构方面是否存在同群效应或者互补效应,以及劳动力流动、退耕还林政策因素对农户收入结构的影响机制。研究方法:考虑农村社会网络内部农户间互动对其决策的影响,利用空间权重矩阵精确且全面地捕捉和定位社会网络复杂关系,构建空间计量模型展开分析。研究结果:(1)在白滩村社会网络体系中,农户的农业收入比增长1%,其亲戚邻居的家庭农业收入比降低6.7%,这一情况反映了劳动力由农业部门向非农部门转移而产生的社会网络"互补效应";(2)白滩村退耕程度越高的农户,其农业收入占家庭总收入比例就越高,退耕程度每增加1%,农业收入比将提高5.2%;(3)家庭总劳动力越多的,农业收入占总收入比例越低,其中家庭农业劳动力每流出1%,农业收入比减少3.2%。研究结论:(1)将白滩村社会网络的互补效应应用于其农村信息共享平台建设;(2)通过鼓励种植收入较高的经济林提高农民退耕还林积极性;(3)以就业为核心促进白滩村剩余劳动力转移。     

小农户合作生产影响因素实证分析

[目的]分析小农户合作生产意愿及其影响因素,以促进小农户发展多样化的联合与合作,提升小农户组织化程度。[方法]首先分类分层确定样本县、样本村,随机分类确定样本户,然后通过访谈和问卷调查获取农户数据,并利用描述性统计和Logistic模型对农户数据进行分析验证。[结果](1)农户土地经营规模小,种植结构单一,非农收入比重高,农业兼业化严重;(1)描述性分析表明,土地规模、人均农业纯收入、农机、农业社会化服务、县域经济、土地转出意愿对农户合作生产具有正向影响,家庭人口数量、非农收入对农户合作生产影响为负;(2)Logistic模型分析表明,对农户合作生产有显著影响的因素为非农收入、农业社会化服务支出和土地转出意愿。[结论]小农户合作生产意愿一般,农业社会化服务支出、土地转出意愿对小农户合作生产具有正向影响,非农收入对农户合作生产具有负向影响。     

基于三维分形的山东省农户分化及耕地利用异质性分析

研究目的:揭示农户分化的内在机制及其耕地利用异质性,正确引导农户耕地经营行为和可持续利用。研究方法:基于分形理论建立"职业—收入—耕地规模"三维农户分类体系,开展山东省农户耕地利用调研及实证分析。研究结果:(1)农户间耕地利用行为具有差异性,耕地面积较大的兼业户表现出"高投入—低收益"特征,且农户类型存在动态变化的可能性;(2)经济发展水平较高的城市呈现以"高度兼业户"为主要农户类型的"单核心"分化趋势;(3)农户分化过程除大规模纯农户和高度兼业户的"终点"外,还存在对农业依赖较大的兼业户和耕地面积较大兼业户等"中间态"。研究结论:农户分化过程有律可循,应针对性地制定耕地利用政策加以引导。     

Post encroachment time threshold identification for right-turn related crashes at unsignalized intersections on intercity highways under mixed traffic

Abstract

Unsignalized intersections in developing countries experience many serious conflicts between cross-traffic due to indiscipline traffic manoeuvrability. Historically, Post Encroachment Time (PET) has gained attention as a proximal indicator to analyze crossing conflicts. However, identifying an appropriate PET threshold to classify critical conflicts for highly heterogeneous traffic scenario is still an unexplored area. Consequently, this study proposes a novel approach of PET threshold identification with proof of application by collecting data from ten intersections located on four-lane intercity highways in the National Capital Region (NCR), India. Both crossing conflicts and right-turn related crash data (for the left-hand drive) are collected. Their correlations are thoroughly studied for each PET threshold using a quantitative technique considering all and individual vehicle categories. Finally, a qualitative analysis is done by ranking the sites based on cumulative PET and related crashes to verify the proposed quantitative technique. A PET threshold of 1?s is obtained from both the techniques which can be used to identify critical conflicts for unsignalized intersections located on four-lane intercity highways. The proposed methodology will serve as an alternative, faster and effective tool to evaluate the hazardousness of unsignalized intersections located on intercity highways under highly heterogeneous traffic condition.     

农村劳动力质量对规模农户生产效率影响研究

随着我国工业化与城镇化加速推进,农村领域大量劳动力以不同速度流向了非农产业,农村劳动力要素禀赋质量发生了巨大变化,农村劳动力要素禀赋质量的异质性对规模农户粮食生产效率的提高产生了深刻的影响。文章基于460户调查数据,运用Q型聚类方法将劳动力质量类型分为男性经验丰富型、女性经验丰富型、男性经验欠缺型、女性经验欠缺型四种类型,并利用随机前沿生产函数模型,计量检验了不同劳动力质量类型、劳动态度及劳动力市场发育等变量对家庭生产效率的影响。研究结果表明:男性经验丰富型与女性经验丰富型对家庭经济增长效率提升产生了显著的正效应,效应值分别为0.290、0.170,而男性经验欠缺型与女性经验欠缺型对生产效率提升产生了明显的负向影响,效应值分别为-0.110、-0.153,劳动态度、劳动力市场发育变量与家庭生产效率提升呈现了较强正、负相关性,效应值分别为0.590、-6.738。     

Sustainability of fish pond culture in rural farming systems of Central and Western Cameroon

In Sub-Saharan Africa, fish ponds are often an integral part of farming systems but have suffered from a lack of viability and sustainability. The present study aims to understand the strategies used by fish farmers to overcome economic and environmental constraints. In 2008 and 2009, fish farmers were surveyed in Central and Western Cameroon, and the fish production systems were classified by cluster analysis. Four broad types were identified according to the complexity of household operations. The development of extensive systems (large-scale and low-input) in rural areas of central Cameroon is induced mainly by abundant available land. For semi-intensive systems in both regions (small-scale and high-input in the Western Region, large-scale and high-input in peri-urban areas of the Central Region), horizontal integration is not sufficient to make fish production profitable and sustainable. More intensive fish farms tend towards vertical integration, in which farmers establish close links with input suppliers. Main causes of low productivity of semi-intensive systems (1–2?t/ha/yr) are both lack of knowledge of fish farming principles by farmers and lack of technical improvement by extension agents and researchers which need to consider the local complexity of farming systems to develop and intensify fish production. The adaptation of development strategies to socio-economic and environmental contexts is a necessity to hope for an increase in fish pond aquaculture production in Africa.     

Trade openness and household welfare within a country: A microeconomic analysis of Vietnamese households

The positive effects of trade liberalisation on several dimensions of poverty have initiated studies of the trade–poverty relationship. Trade liberalisation accompanies institutional reforms that help to reduce institutional barriers against the poor. This study examines the impacts of trade openness and institutional reforms on rural household welfare at the provincial level through the analysis of the determinants of welfare of rural households in Vietnam. The study employs a model of micro-determinants of growth and tests it on the data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys (VHLSSs) of 2006 and 2010. What makes the study different from some other studies of the same vein is that it attempts to directly capture the institutional effect on welfare. The study finds that, in the provinces with high institutional reforms and trade openness, the welfare of rural households improved. Institutional reforms in Vietnam appeared to be sluggish in the late 2000s. In particular, both access to land and lower informal charges were the important determinants of welfare improvement over time. These findings suggest that Vietnam should maintain its development by accelerating the process of institutional reforms, thereby helping poor households to improve standards of living.